Security Incidents in Sudan: Trends and Patterns

In Sudan... 231 humanitarian workers have died, 281 humanitarian workers have been wounded, 155 humanitarian workers have been kidnapped.

1 Executive Summary

Sudan has become one of the world’s most dangerous contexts for humanitarian operations, with violence escalating sharply since the outbreak of civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in 2023. Over 150,000 people have died, and more than 14 million have been displaced, creating unprecedented operational challenges for humanitarian actors.

Key findings from this analysis include:

• Incident surges align with major conflict milestones, including the Darfur crisis, Bashir’s overthrow, the 2021 coup, and the 2023 civil war.
• Shooting, kidnapping, and bodily assault are the most common attack methods, reflecting both armed combat and targeted threats to aid workers.
• Ambushes dominate the attack context, especially on roads—making transportation routes a critical risk factor.
• Sudanese nationals face nearly all casualties, highlighting inequities in exposure and duty of care.
• Deadly incidents span 20+ years and occur across both urban and rural zones, showing the long-term and geographically dispersed nature of risk.

This report emphasizes the need for conflict-specific planning, real-time risk assessments, protection of national staff, and sustained policy engagement to ensure safer humanitarian access amid Sudan’s evolving crisis.

2 Background: The Conflict

2.1 Historical Context

Sudan faces a catastrophic humanitarian crisis as civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) enters its third year. Since April 2023, approximately 150,000 people have died and 14 million been displaced. Three million refugees have fled to neighboring countries, while 30 million need humanitarian assistance. The UN warns Sudan faces the “world’s largest hunger crisis.”

The conflict stems from a power struggle between SAF leader Burhan and RSF commander Hemedti after they jointly overthrew dictator Bashir in 2019. Foreign involvement has complicated peace efforts. Recently, SAF has gained territory around Khartoum, while RSF continues committing atrocities in Darfur, raising concerns of renewed genocide (Foreign Relations 2024).

2.2 Recent Escalation

Initial outbreak (2023):

• Fighting began April 2023 in Khartoum between SAF and RSF
• Violence spread quickly to Darfur, where RSF targeted non-Arab groups
• RSF killed over 800 civilians in Ardamata during November attacks

SAF counteroffensive (2024-2025):

• SAF recaptured much of Khartoum area by early 2025
• SAF successfully ended the blockade around the city of Obeid that had been maintained by the RSF for two years.
• Key gains include Omdurman city and a strategic oil refinery

Map of Incidents

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3 Temporal Trends in Security Incidents

3.1 Incident Frequency Over Time

Figure 1: Security incidents in Sudan

3.1.1 Analysis of Incident Trends

The time-series plot illustrates clear peaks in humanitarian security incidents in Sudan, aligning with key political and military events:

• 2004–2006: A sharp rise in incidents coincides with the height of the Darfur conflict, reaching a peak of over 40 incidents in 2005.
• 2019: A brief uptick follows the ousting of President Omar al-Bashir, reflecting the instability during Sudan’s political transition.
• 2021: The military coup is marked by a modest increase in violence, likely due to the power vacuum and shifting control structures.
• 2023–2024: The most dramatic escalation occurs with the outbreak of civil war between the SAF and RSF. Incidents surge, peaking in 2024 with the SAF counteroffensive and high-profile events like the assassination of the Darfur governor.
• 2025: Incident numbers drop significantly following the SAF’s recapture of Khartoum areas, suggesting a potential shift in conflict intensity or a redistribution of control.

These patterns indicate that spikes in violence are closely tied to leadership changes, territorial contests, and transitions in power, reinforcing the need for real-time monitoring during political turning points.

4 Nature of Security Incidents

4.1 Predominant Attack Types

Figure 2: Most common types of attacks

4.1.1 Analysis of Attack Methods

The most prevalent method of attack is shooting, underscoring the militarized nature of the conflict. Kidnapping and bodily assault are also common, reflecting tactics aimed at intimidation and disruption of humanitarian work. A significant portion of incidents are recorded as “unknown,” highlighting data gaps and the opacity of conflict environments. These attack types reflect the dangers posed to aid workers not only from crossfire but also from deliberate targeting.

4.2 Attack Contexts

Figure 3: Security incidents by attack context

4.2.1 Analysis of Attack Contexts

Ambushes are by far the most frequent attack context, significantly surpassing other categories. This suggests both SAF and RSF frequently utilize element-of-surprise tactics, particularly along transport routes. The prevalence of ambushes indicates high risks associated with road travel, reinforcing the need for dynamic security planning, route risk assessments, and protection protocols, especially for humanitarian convoys.

4.3 Location of Attack

Figure 4: Most common attack locations

4.3.1 Analysis of Attack Locations

Most humanitarian incidents occurred on roads and project sites, with a high share of unknown locations.

5 Human Impact of Security Incidents

5.1 Casualties by Category

Figure 5: Total casualties by category

5.1.1 Analysis of Casualty Patterns

The impact of the conflict is disproportionately borne by Sudanese nationals, who account for the vast majority of those killed, wounded, and kidnapped. Nationals face nearly ten times more fatalities than international staff, emphasizing the local toll of the crisis. The high proportion of fatalities relative to injuries also suggests that many attacks are deliberately lethal. This underscores the need for context-specific strategies that prioritize national staff safety and psychological support.

6 Major Incidents

6.1 Top 5 Most Impactful Security Incidents

Table 1: Most impactful security incidents (by total affected)

	Year	Location	Total Affected	Killed	Wounded	Context	Actor Type
3778	2023	Road	18	0	18	Ambush	Unknown
384	2005	Road	17	0	17	Ambush	Unknown
377	2005	Project site	15	0	15	Mob violence	Aid recipient
260	2003	Road	10	8	2	Ambush	Unknown
507	2006	Unknown	8	0	8	Ambush	Unknown

6.1.1 Analysis of Major Incidents

The top five most impactful incidents span a wide timeframe—from the early 2000s during the height of the Darfur conflict to a recent event in 2023. Notably, several of the deadliest incidents occurred during roadside ambushes, highlighting the sustained vulnerability of transportation routes over decades. These high-impact events demonstrate the long-running and geographically dispersed nature of conflict in Sudan, with implications for both historical accountability and forward-looking risk mitigation.

For more detailed information on the Sudan conflict timeline, see the Council on Foreign Relations Conflict Tracker.

7 Conclusions and Recommendations

7.1 Key Findings

• Incident spikes align with political turmoil: Major increases in attacks correspond to events like the Darfur conflict (2004–2006), Bashir’s removal (2019), the 2021 military coup, and the 2023 civil war.
• 2024 marks the deadliest year: The SAF counteroffensive resulted in the highest number of incidents recorded, reflecting intense territorial battles and large-scale attacks.
• Shooting is the most common attack method: Followed by kidnapping and bodily assault, indicating a mix of military-style violence and targeted intimidation.
• Ambushes dominate attack contexts: The high frequency of ambushes suggests road travel is particularly dangerous and systematically targeted.
• Sudanese nationals suffer the most: Nationals face significantly higher casualties than international staff, with a disproportionate number of deaths.
• Long-term risk on transport routes: From 2003 to 2023, major incidents consistently occur along roads, showing persistent vulnerability to roadside attacks across decades.

Recommendations

7.1.1 For Security Planning

• Conduct regular route risk assessments, especially on roads with a history of ambushes.
• Use armed escorts for convoys in high-risk areas.
• Tailor security protocols by region—urban areas like Khartoum vs. rural areas like Darfur.
• Set evacuation thresholds based on real-time shifts in territorial control.

7.1.2 For Humanitarian Organizations

• Enhance security info-sharing between national and international partners.
• Pre-position essential supplies in hard-to-reach regions.
• Use remote programming in RSF-held areas to reduce staff exposure.
• Provide mental health support for staff affected by violence.

7.1.3 For Policy Development

• Advocate for SAF–RSF-agreed humanitarian corridors, especially for road movements.
• Support community protection in ethnically targeted zones.
• Push for accountability through documentation of attacks on civilians and aid workers.
• Enforce targeted sanctions against external suppliers of arms to RSF.

7.1.4 For Future Research

• Study how shifts in control affect attack frequency and location.
• Compare risks faced by national vs. international staff.
• Assess damage to infrastructure like hospitals and clinics.
• Evaluate which diplomatic efforts improve humanitarian access.

By providing a data-driven understanding of security patterns in Sudan, this analysis aims to contribute to safer and more effective operations in this challenging environment.

References

Foreign Relations, Council on. 2024. “Power Struggle in Sudan.” https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/power-struggle-sudan.